{"schema":1,"brand":"GMTRENCHOR","builtAt":"2026-09-20T02:26:00.215Z","chains":[{"chain":"arc","window":{"from":"2026-09-15T12:18:11.700Z","to":"2026-09-20T02:20:04.000Z"},"calls":2587,"open":436,"closed":2151,"graded":2149,"unverified":2,"outcomes":{"hit2x":124,"hit":51,"flat":1831,"loss":139,"rug":4},"rugged":11,"rates":{"hit":0.0814,"doubled":0.0577,"rugged":0.0051,"neverPrintedAboveEntry":0.684},"medians":{"bestReturn":0,"closeReturn":0,"hoursToBest":0},"lift":{"calledPools":2151,"neverCalledPools":43311,"called":{"printedAboveEntry":0.3161,"doubled":0.0581,"tenX":0.0107},"neverCalled":{"printedAboveEntry":0.148,"doubled":0.0169,"tenX":0.003},"scanned":47366,"note":"Called is the best print against the price the call was opened at, which is later than a pool's first trade. Never called is the best print against that pool's first price.","lift":{"printedAboveEntry":2.14,"doubled":3.44,"tenX":3.57}}},{"chain":"robinhood","window":{"from":"2026-09-10T10:44:20.210Z","to":"2026-09-20T02:24:13.588Z"},"calls":4450,"open":15,"closed":4435,"graded":4336,"unverified":99,"outcomes":{"hit2x":547,"hit":260,"flat":2787,"loss":636,"rug":106},"rugged":110,"rates":{"hit":0.1861,"doubled":0.1266,"rugged":0.0254,"neverPrintedAboveEntry":0.4954},"medians":{"bestReturn":0.00035,"closeReturn":0,"hoursToBest":0.049012},"lift":{"calledPools":3933,"neverCalledPools":15152,"called":{"printedAboveEntry":0.5174,"doubled":0.137,"tenX":0.0211},"neverCalled":{"printedAboveEntry":0.3279,"doubled":0.1064,"tenX":0.0201},"scanned":19323,"note":"Called is the best print against the price the call was opened at, which is later than a pool's first trade. Never called is the best print against that pool's first price.","lift":{"printedAboveEntry":1.58,"doubled":1.29,"tenX":1.05}}}],"scoreBands":[{"score":7,"calls":1970,"hit":0.1959,"doubled":0.1183,"rugged":0.0107,"medianBestReturn":0.0178},{"score":8,"calls":1190,"hit":0.0908,"doubled":0.0672,"rugged":0.0092,"medianBestReturn":0},{"score":9,"calls":1772,"hit":0.1383,"doubled":0.0999,"rugged":0.0435,"medianBestReturn":0},{"score":10,"calls":954,"hit":0.087,"doubled":0.0639,"rugged":0.0084,"medianBestReturn":0},{"score":11,"calls":394,"hit":0.2665,"doubled":0.2157,"rugged":0.0102,"medianBestReturn":0.00075},{"score":12,"calls":182,"hit":0.2582,"doubled":0.1703,"rugged":0,"medianBestReturn":0.0084},{"score":13,"calls":23,"hit":0.3478,"doubled":0.2609,"rugged":0,"medianBestReturn":0.2251}],"lab":{"nightsScored":9,"stale":false,"staleReason":null,"confirmed":[],"refuted":[{"id":"T-GRAHAM","book":"Graham, The Intelligent Investor","claim":"The first question is not what a thing is worth but whether it can go to zero. A pool with real liquidity behind its valuation has an exit; one without is a price nobody can get.","verdict":"refuted","outOfSampleNights":6,"lift":0.21399702282752572,"ciLow":0.19200949836837075,"ciHigh":0.238194693922844,"n":31442,"reason":"the whole interval sits under 1.2x over 6 night(s) on 31442 selected rows: the rule does not do what it claims"},{"id":"T-STEVENSON","book":"Stevenson, The Trading Game","claim":"Find out who holds what and what they must do next. Many trades from few wallets is a pool being worked; few trades from many wallets is a pool being found.","verdict":"refuted","outOfSampleNights":6,"lift":0.401435149381643,"ciLow":0.32225629667041833,"ciHigh":0.5024368401752456,"n":9636,"reason":"the whole interval sits under 1.2x over 6 night(s) on 9636 selected rows: the rule does not do what it claims"},{"id":"T-SHILLER-NAME","book":"Akerlof and Shiller, Animal Spirits","claim":"The story is the asset. On this chain the story is the ticker, and a ticker nobody has used before can carry one where the ninth reuse of a name cannot.","verdict":"refuted","outOfSampleNights":6,"lift":0.4184594502203011,"ciLow":0.3688491755030858,"ciHigh":0.4516834123735338,"n":15802,"reason":"the whole interval sits under 1.2x over 6 night(s) on 15802 selected rows: the rule does not do what it claims"},{"id":"T-STOCK-QUOTE","book":"the operator's question","claim":"A pool quoted in a tokenized stock is a different animal from one quoted in ether. Two numbers on this box disagreed about which way; this is the measurement that retires both.","verdict":"refuted","outOfSampleNights":6,"lift":0.6295468696008122,"ciLow":0.4020997173031406,"ciHigh":0.9774537345930165,"n":3400,"reason":"the whole interval sits under 1.2x over 6 night(s) on 3400 selected rows: the rule does not do what it claims"},{"id":"T-STEVENSON-FILLS","book":"Stevenson, The Trading Game","claim":"Dollar volume made of fills under sixty dollars is dust, not a crowd; ninety-three per cent of pools whose early fills were that small were dead within the day.","verdict":"refuted","outOfSampleNights":5,"lift":0.8555459849253456,"ciLow":0.7729673603090006,"ciHigh":0.9389410734082325,"n":3395,"reason":"the whole interval sits under 1.2x over 5 night(s) on 3395 selected rows: the rule does not do what it claims"}],"open":[{"id":"T-SOROS","book":"Soros, The Alchemy of Finance","claim":"Price and the conditions that move price feed each other. A memecoin has nothing underneath, so the loop is the whole asset, and a second wave of distinct buyers with depth behind it is a loop still turning.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":2,"lift":0,"ciLow":0,"ciHigh":0,"n":11,"reason":"open, not found: 11 selected rows against the 40 a difference this size needs — small, not wrong"},{"id":"T-SOROS-EXIT","book":"Soros, The Alchemy of Finance","claim":"A reflexive loop does not unwind the way it wound. The boom takes as long as a crowd takes to arrive; the bust takes as long as one exit takes to clear. The gap between those two durations is the argument for a trailing stop over a target.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":0,"lift":null,"ciLow":null,"ciHigh":null,"n":null,"reason":"no out-of-sample night yet — the rule was registered tonight and earns nothing on its own data"},{"id":"T-SHILLER-STOCK","book":"Akerlof and Shiller, Animal Spirits","claim":"A borrowed narrative is a borrowed confidence. A coin named after a company arrives with feelings people already have, attached to something with nothing in it.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":6,"lift":2.3595132808826835,"ciLow":1.2241348044878388,"ciHigh":3.650447906441313,"n":2054,"reason":"open, not found: 2054 selected rows against the 3263 a difference this size needs — small, not wrong"},{"id":"T-FISHER","book":"Fisher, Super Stocks","claim":"For something young, earnings are noise and revenue is signal. The on-chain analogue of price to sales is valuation against the volume actually going through the pool.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":6,"lift":1.7993023275270648,"ciLow":1.4696454208983323,"ciHigh":2.363367469108044,"n":8821,"reason":"open, not found: 6 of 7 out-of-sample nights"},{"id":"T-HOURS","book":"the operator's question","claim":"The chain never closes but the stocks on it trade on American hours. If the market's day reaches these pools, it reaches them through who is awake, not through price.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":4,"lift":1.2150135913266504,"ciLow":1.0282079845282104,"ciHigh":1.5672020096369568,"n":7348,"reason":"open, not found: the rule reverses: 1 · under half an hour old 1.28x against 5 · over a day old 0.00x — one pooled number would describe neither"},{"id":"T-CATCHER","book":"the house's own thesis","claim":"The catcher's seven points are worth more than six. The published backtest says so with a lift of about one and a half, computed over survivors with today's liquidity standing in for yesterday's; this is the same question with neither flaw.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":6,"lift":3.3924457861627317,"ciLow":2.5940264604750505,"ciHigh":5.611587913475725,"n":227,"reason":"open, not found: 227 selected rows against the 3067 a difference this size needs — small, not wrong"},{"id":"T-MOMENTUM-R1","book":"the 48-hour measurement, 12 Sep 2026","claim":"Half an hour after the scanner first sees a pool, price already up two-fold on the hour with an hour of volume twice the pool, quoted in ether, is a runner more often than not — and a median forty-six-fold was still ahead of that moment.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":5,"lift":3.6618334249587687,"ciLow":0.6010973936899863,"ciHigh":9.719025050778606,"n":428,"reason":"open, not found: 428 selected rows against the 586 a difference this size needs — small, not wrong"},{"id":"T-MOMENTUM-R2","book":"the 48-hour measurement, 12 Sep 2026","claim":"The same moment asked in dollars: fifty thousand on the hour, two-fold on the hour, ten thousand in the pool. More recall than the first form for one more false positive per runner.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":5,"lift":2.344408147404538,"ciLow":0.5228689333978586,"ciHigh":7.568619795374948,"n":491,"reason":"open, not found: 491 selected rows against the 664 a difference this size needs — small, not wrong"},{"id":"T-MOMENTUM-R3","book":"the 48-hour measurement, 12 Sep 2026","claim":"Volume LEVEL does not lead a run; volume ACCELERATION does. An hour's volume at the second reading twice what it was at the first, with price a quarter up, is the earliest signal with a real lift, ten minutes in.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":5,"lift":7.121861132836365,"ciLow":4.686703709977052,"ciHigh":12.109997600158906,"n":467,"reason":"open, not found: 467 selected rows against the 1359 a difference this size needs — small, not wrong"},{"id":"T-SHILLER-NAME-RUNS","book":"Akerlof and Shiller, Animal Spirits — read the other way","claim":"A reused ticker both dies more often and runs more often. Eleven of thirteen maintained runners wore a name the scanner had seen before; the trader's gate refuses a reused name at the door and refused thirteen of fifteen.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":5,"lift":3.204445051914768,"ciLow":1.9029568373264218,"ciHigh":4.904859430110615,"n":20405,"reason":"open, not found: 5 of 7 out-of-sample nights"},{"id":"T-CATCHER-CHG24","book":"the house's own thesis, measured against the runners","claim":"The catcher's ceiling — past four-fold in a day it has run — refuses the runners by construction while a median forty-six-fold is still ahead. Lifting it raised recall of ten-folders from a quarter to eighty-five per cent and precision at the same time.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":5,"lift":4.4381605270775655,"ciLow":3.3123303452115973,"ciHigh":5.881446726816585,"n":670,"reason":"open, not found: 670 selected rows against the 1111 a difference this size needs — small, not wrong"},{"id":"T-CATCHER-ACCEL","book":"the house's own thesis, measured against the runners","claim":"The acceleration term is exactly six on every pool under six hours old, because the feed reports the six-hour volume as the hour's. It hands two points to everything young and separates nothing.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":5,"lift":3.7801208973898204,"ciLow":2.289237321849637,"ciHigh":7.720134516869777,"n":95,"reason":"open, not found: 95 selected rows against the 3364 a difference this size needs — small, not wrong"},{"id":"T-STEVENSON-RELAUNCH","book":"Stevenson, The Trading Game","claim":"The same hands launch the same name again inside a week, and a name relaunched by someone who has done it before runs more often than a name launched once. The count of runners is a count of families.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":5,"lift":3.242658850111083,"ciLow":1.9275116831968184,"ciHigh":4.856279799554153,"n":21027,"reason":"open, not found: 5 of 7 out-of-sample nights"},{"id":"T-GATE-LIFT","book":"The scoreboard this box publishes at /record, 18 Sep 2026","claim":"A pool the scanner called doubles more often than a pool that traded and was never called. It is the only question that matters about a scanner and the one the free record leads with, so it has to survive nights it was not chosen on.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":0,"lift":null,"ciLow":null,"ciHigh":null,"n":null,"reason":"no out-of-sample night yet — the rule was registered tonight and earns nothing on its own data"},{"id":"T-SCORE-SEPARATES","book":"The scanner's own score, registered as a null on 18 Sep 2026","claim":"A call scoring ten or more doubles more often than one scoring seven to nine. Expected to be refuted: the measured bands ran 7:13% 8:12% 9:13% 10:7% 11:23% 12:18% 13:17%, which is not an order.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":0,"lift":null,"ciLow":null,"ciHigh":null,"n":null,"reason":"no out-of-sample night yet — the rule was registered tonight and earns nothing on its own data"},{"id":"T-SELLTEST","book":"honeycheck, the sell test this box runs as a separate service","claim":"A call opened on a token honeycheck had already marked TRAP or BLOCKED before the call was made dies or rugs more often than one on a token it had not. TAXED is banded apart: money back short is not money not back.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":0,"lift":null,"ciLow":null,"ciHigh":null,"n":null,"reason":"no out-of-sample night yet — the rule was registered tonight and earns nothing on its own data"},{"id":"T-CONCENTRATION","book":"The oldest suspicion on this chain, never measured here against a fixed horizon","claim":"When the ten largest addresses hold most of a token at the moment a call is opened, the call rugs more often. A high top-ten share is a fact; a low one is weak evidence, because splitting a holding across wallets costs nothing.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":0,"lift":null,"ciLow":null,"ciHigh":null,"n":null,"reason":"no out-of-sample night yet — the rule was registered tonight and earns nothing on its own data"},{"id":"T-FUNDING-REGIME","book":"Our own Hyperliquid sampling, kept since 17 Aug 2026","claim":"Calls opened while Bitcoin funding is negative on Hyperliquid double more often. Negative funding is a crowded short side, and the folk claim is that a squeeze on the majors drags risk appetite as far down the curve as this chain.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":0,"lift":null,"ciLow":null,"ciHigh":null,"n":null,"reason":"no out-of-sample night yet — the rule was registered tonight and earns nothing on its own data"}],"note":"Nothing has cleared its bar yet. A thesis is confirmed only after it survives on nights it was not chosen on; until then it is open, whatever its lift looks like."},"labs":{"robinhood":{"nightsScored":9,"stale":false,"staleReason":null,"confirmed":[],"refuted":[{"id":"T-GRAHAM","book":"Graham, The Intelligent Investor","claim":"The first question is not what a thing is worth but whether it can go to zero. A pool with real liquidity behind its valuation has an exit; one without is a price nobody can get.","verdict":"refuted","outOfSampleNights":6,"lift":0.21399702282752572,"ciLow":0.19200949836837075,"ciHigh":0.238194693922844,"n":31442,"reason":"the whole interval sits under 1.2x over 6 night(s) on 31442 selected rows: the rule does not do what it claims"},{"id":"T-STEVENSON","book":"Stevenson, The Trading Game","claim":"Find out who holds what and what they must do next. Many trades from few wallets is a pool being worked; few trades from many wallets is a pool being found.","verdict":"refuted","outOfSampleNights":6,"lift":0.401435149381643,"ciLow":0.32225629667041833,"ciHigh":0.5024368401752456,"n":9636,"reason":"the whole interval sits under 1.2x over 6 night(s) on 9636 selected rows: the rule does not do what it claims"},{"id":"T-SHILLER-NAME","book":"Akerlof and Shiller, Animal Spirits","claim":"The story is the asset. On this chain the story is the ticker, and a ticker nobody has used before can carry one where the ninth reuse of a name cannot.","verdict":"refuted","outOfSampleNights":6,"lift":0.4184594502203011,"ciLow":0.3688491755030858,"ciHigh":0.4516834123735338,"n":15802,"reason":"the whole interval sits under 1.2x over 6 night(s) on 15802 selected rows: the rule does not do what it claims"},{"id":"T-STOCK-QUOTE","book":"the operator's question","claim":"A pool quoted in a tokenized stock is a different animal from one quoted in ether. Two numbers on this box disagreed about which way; this is the measurement that retires both.","verdict":"refuted","outOfSampleNights":6,"lift":0.6295468696008122,"ciLow":0.4020997173031406,"ciHigh":0.9774537345930165,"n":3400,"reason":"the whole interval sits under 1.2x over 6 night(s) on 3400 selected rows: the rule does not do what it claims"},{"id":"T-STEVENSON-FILLS","book":"Stevenson, The Trading Game","claim":"Dollar volume made of fills under sixty dollars is dust, not a crowd; ninety-three per cent of pools whose early fills were that small were dead within the day.","verdict":"refuted","outOfSampleNights":5,"lift":0.8555459849253456,"ciLow":0.7729673603090006,"ciHigh":0.9389410734082325,"n":3395,"reason":"the whole interval sits under 1.2x over 5 night(s) on 3395 selected rows: the rule does not do what it claims"}],"open":[{"id":"T-SOROS","book":"Soros, The Alchemy of Finance","claim":"Price and the conditions that move price feed each other. A memecoin has nothing underneath, so the loop is the whole asset, and a second wave of distinct buyers with depth behind it is a loop still turning.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":2,"lift":0,"ciLow":0,"ciHigh":0,"n":11,"reason":"open, not found: 11 selected rows against the 40 a difference this size needs — small, not wrong"},{"id":"T-SOROS-EXIT","book":"Soros, The Alchemy of Finance","claim":"A reflexive loop does not unwind the way it wound. The boom takes as long as a crowd takes to arrive; the bust takes as long as one exit takes to clear. The gap between those two durations is the argument for a trailing stop over a target.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":0,"lift":null,"ciLow":null,"ciHigh":null,"n":null,"reason":"no out-of-sample night yet — the rule was registered tonight and earns nothing on its own data"},{"id":"T-SHILLER-STOCK","book":"Akerlof and Shiller, Animal Spirits","claim":"A borrowed narrative is a borrowed confidence. A coin named after a company arrives with feelings people already have, attached to something with nothing in it.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":6,"lift":2.3595132808826835,"ciLow":1.2241348044878388,"ciHigh":3.650447906441313,"n":2054,"reason":"open, not found: 2054 selected rows against the 3263 a difference this size needs — small, not wrong"},{"id":"T-FISHER","book":"Fisher, Super Stocks","claim":"For something young, earnings are noise and revenue is signal. The on-chain analogue of price to sales is valuation against the volume actually going through the pool.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":6,"lift":1.7993023275270648,"ciLow":1.4696454208983323,"ciHigh":2.363367469108044,"n":8821,"reason":"open, not found: 6 of 7 out-of-sample nights"},{"id":"T-HOURS","book":"the operator's question","claim":"The chain never closes but the stocks on it trade on American hours. If the market's day reaches these pools, it reaches them through who is awake, not through price.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":4,"lift":1.2150135913266504,"ciLow":1.0282079845282104,"ciHigh":1.5672020096369568,"n":7348,"reason":"open, not found: the rule reverses: 1 · under half an hour old 1.28x against 5 · over a day old 0.00x — one pooled number would describe neither"},{"id":"T-CATCHER","book":"the house's own thesis","claim":"The catcher's seven points are worth more than six. The published backtest says so with a lift of about one and a half, computed over survivors with today's liquidity standing in for yesterday's; this is the same question with neither flaw.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":6,"lift":3.3924457861627317,"ciLow":2.5940264604750505,"ciHigh":5.611587913475725,"n":227,"reason":"open, not found: 227 selected rows against the 3067 a difference this size needs — small, not wrong"},{"id":"T-MOMENTUM-R1","book":"the 48-hour measurement, 12 Sep 2026","claim":"Half an hour after the scanner first sees a pool, price already up two-fold on the hour with an hour of volume twice the pool, quoted in ether, is a runner more often than not — and a median forty-six-fold was still ahead of that moment.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":5,"lift":3.6618334249587687,"ciLow":0.6010973936899863,"ciHigh":9.719025050778606,"n":428,"reason":"open, not found: 428 selected rows against the 586 a difference this size needs — small, not wrong"},{"id":"T-MOMENTUM-R2","book":"the 48-hour measurement, 12 Sep 2026","claim":"The same moment asked in dollars: fifty thousand on the hour, two-fold on the hour, ten thousand in the pool. More recall than the first form for one more false positive per runner.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":5,"lift":2.344408147404538,"ciLow":0.5228689333978586,"ciHigh":7.568619795374948,"n":491,"reason":"open, not found: 491 selected rows against the 664 a difference this size needs — small, not wrong"},{"id":"T-MOMENTUM-R3","book":"the 48-hour measurement, 12 Sep 2026","claim":"Volume LEVEL does not lead a run; volume ACCELERATION does. An hour's volume at the second reading twice what it was at the first, with price a quarter up, is the earliest signal with a real lift, ten minutes in.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":5,"lift":7.121861132836365,"ciLow":4.686703709977052,"ciHigh":12.109997600158906,"n":467,"reason":"open, not found: 467 selected rows against the 1359 a difference this size needs — small, not wrong"},{"id":"T-SHILLER-NAME-RUNS","book":"Akerlof and Shiller, Animal Spirits — read the other way","claim":"A reused ticker both dies more often and runs more often. Eleven of thirteen maintained runners wore a name the scanner had seen before; the trader's gate refuses a reused name at the door and refused thirteen of fifteen.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":5,"lift":3.204445051914768,"ciLow":1.9029568373264218,"ciHigh":4.904859430110615,"n":20405,"reason":"open, not found: 5 of 7 out-of-sample nights"},{"id":"T-CATCHER-CHG24","book":"the house's own thesis, measured against the runners","claim":"The catcher's ceiling — past four-fold in a day it has run — refuses the runners by construction while a median forty-six-fold is still ahead. Lifting it raised recall of ten-folders from a quarter to eighty-five per cent and precision at the same time.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":5,"lift":4.4381605270775655,"ciLow":3.3123303452115973,"ciHigh":5.881446726816585,"n":670,"reason":"open, not found: 670 selected rows against the 1111 a difference this size needs — small, not wrong"},{"id":"T-CATCHER-ACCEL","book":"the house's own thesis, measured against the runners","claim":"The acceleration term is exactly six on every pool under six hours old, because the feed reports the six-hour volume as the hour's. It hands two points to everything young and separates nothing.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":5,"lift":3.7801208973898204,"ciLow":2.289237321849637,"ciHigh":7.720134516869777,"n":95,"reason":"open, not found: 95 selected rows against the 3364 a difference this size needs — small, not wrong"},{"id":"T-STEVENSON-RELAUNCH","book":"Stevenson, The Trading Game","claim":"The same hands launch the same name again inside a week, and a name relaunched by someone who has done it before runs more often than a name launched once. The count of runners is a count of families.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":5,"lift":3.242658850111083,"ciLow":1.9275116831968184,"ciHigh":4.856279799554153,"n":21027,"reason":"open, not found: 5 of 7 out-of-sample nights"},{"id":"T-GATE-LIFT","book":"The scoreboard this box publishes at /record, 18 Sep 2026","claim":"A pool the scanner called doubles more often than a pool that traded and was never called. It is the only question that matters about a scanner and the one the free record leads with, so it has to survive nights it was not chosen on.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":0,"lift":null,"ciLow":null,"ciHigh":null,"n":null,"reason":"no out-of-sample night yet — the rule was registered tonight and earns nothing on its own data"},{"id":"T-SCORE-SEPARATES","book":"The scanner's own score, registered as a null on 18 Sep 2026","claim":"A call scoring ten or more doubles more often than one scoring seven to nine. Expected to be refuted: the measured bands ran 7:13% 8:12% 9:13% 10:7% 11:23% 12:18% 13:17%, which is not an order.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":0,"lift":null,"ciLow":null,"ciHigh":null,"n":null,"reason":"no out-of-sample night yet — the rule was registered tonight and earns nothing on its own data"},{"id":"T-SELLTEST","book":"honeycheck, the sell test this box runs as a separate service","claim":"A call opened on a token honeycheck had already marked TRAP or BLOCKED before the call was made dies or rugs more often than one on a token it had not. TAXED is banded apart: money back short is not money not back.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":0,"lift":null,"ciLow":null,"ciHigh":null,"n":null,"reason":"no out-of-sample night yet — the rule was registered tonight and earns nothing on its own data"},{"id":"T-CONCENTRATION","book":"The oldest suspicion on this chain, never measured here against a fixed horizon","claim":"When the ten largest addresses hold most of a token at the moment a call is opened, the call rugs more often. A high top-ten share is a fact; a low one is weak evidence, because splitting a holding across wallets costs nothing.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":0,"lift":null,"ciLow":null,"ciHigh":null,"n":null,"reason":"no out-of-sample night yet — the rule was registered tonight and earns nothing on its own data"},{"id":"T-FUNDING-REGIME","book":"Our own Hyperliquid sampling, kept since 17 Aug 2026","claim":"Calls opened while Bitcoin funding is negative on Hyperliquid double more often. Negative funding is a crowded short side, and the folk claim is that a squeeze on the majors drags risk appetite as far down the curve as this chain.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":0,"lift":null,"ciLow":null,"ciHigh":null,"n":null,"reason":"no out-of-sample night yet — the rule was registered tonight and earns nothing on its own data"}],"note":"Nothing has cleared its bar yet. A thesis is confirmed only after it survives on nights it was not chosen on; until then it is open, whatever its lift looks like."},"arc":{"nightsScored":3,"stale":false,"staleReason":null,"confirmed":[],"refuted":[{"id":"T-GRAHAM","book":"Graham, The Intelligent Investor","claim":"The first question is not what a thing is worth but whether it can go to zero. A pool with real liquidity behind its valuation has an exit; one without is a price nobody can get.","verdict":"refuted","outOfSampleNights":2,"lift":1.0161535481288397,"ciLow":1.0147388647825113,"ciHigh":1.0406513041748089,"n":18433,"reason":"the whole interval sits under 1.2x over 2 night(s) on 18433 selected rows: the rule does not do what it claims"},{"id":"T-STEVENSON","book":"Stevenson, The Trading Game","claim":"Find out who holds what and what they must do next. Many trades from few wallets is a pool being worked; few trades from many wallets is a pool being found.","verdict":"refuted","outOfSampleNights":2,"lift":1.0119089138614046,"ciLow":1.0118950661403001,"ciHigh":1.0119089138614046,"n":2452,"reason":"the whole interval sits under 1.2x over 2 night(s) on 2452 selected rows: the rule does not do what it claims"},{"id":"T-SHILLER-NAME","book":"Akerlof and Shiller, Animal Spirits","claim":"The story is the asset. On this chain the story is the ticker, and a ticker nobody has used before can carry one where the ninth reuse of a name cannot.","verdict":"refuted","outOfSampleNights":2,"lift":1.0105620346063369,"ciLow":1.010054353748255,"ciHigh":1.0140934220195772,"n":11319,"reason":"the whole interval sits under 1.2x over 2 night(s) on 11319 selected rows: the rule does not do what it claims"}],"open":[{"id":"T-SOROS","book":"Soros, The Alchemy of Finance","claim":"Price and the conditions that move price feed each other. A memecoin has nothing underneath, so the loop is the whole asset, and a second wave of distinct buyers with depth behind it is a loop still turning.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":1,"lift":68.98602986695232,"ciLow":null,"ciHigh":null,"n":65,"reason":"the interval could not be computed — too few pools to resample"},{"id":"T-SOROS-EXIT","book":"Soros, The Alchemy of Finance","claim":"A reflexive loop does not unwind the way it wound. The boom takes as long as a crowd takes to arrive; the bust takes as long as one exit takes to clear. The gap between those two durations is the argument for a trailing stop over a target.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":0,"lift":null,"ciLow":null,"ciHigh":null,"n":null,"reason":"no out-of-sample night yet — the rule was registered tonight and earns nothing on its own data"},{"id":"T-SHILLER-STOCK","book":"Akerlof and Shiller, Animal Spirits","claim":"A borrowed narrative is a borrowed confidence. A coin named after a company arrives with feelings people already have, attached to something with nothing in it.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":2,"lift":0.2968774791074883,"ciLow":0,"ciHigh":0.3587456383672359,"n":529,"reason":"open, not found: 529 selected rows against the 6809 a difference this size needs — small, not wrong"},{"id":"T-FISHER","book":"Fisher, Super Stocks","claim":"For something young, earnings are noise and revenue is signal. The on-chain analogue of price to sales is valuation against the volume actually going through the pool.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":2,"lift":6.722222222222222,"ciLow":6.5,"ciHigh":6.722222222222222,"n":22,"reason":"open, not found: 22 selected rows against the 2662 a difference this size needs — small, not wrong"},{"id":"T-STOCK-QUOTE","book":"the operator's question","claim":"A pool quoted in a tokenized stock is a different animal from one quoted in ether. Two numbers on this box disagreed about which way; this is the measurement that retires both.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":0,"lift":null,"ciLow":null,"ciHigh":null,"n":null,"reason":"no out-of-sample night yet — the rule was registered tonight and earns nothing on its own data"},{"id":"T-HOURS","book":"the operator's question","claim":"The chain never closes but the stocks on it trade on American hours. If the market's day reaches these pools, it reaches them through who is awake, not through price.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":1,"lift":0.9837369035396193,"ciLow":null,"ciHigh":null,"n":5959,"reason":"the interval could not be computed — too few pools to resample"},{"id":"T-CATCHER","book":"the house's own thesis","claim":"The catcher's seven points are worth more than six. The published backtest says so with a lift of about one and a half, computed over survivors with today's liquidity standing in for yesterday's; this is the same question with neither flaw.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":1,"lift":6.799922640737233,"ciLow":null,"ciHigh":null,"n":9,"reason":"the interval could not be computed — too few pools to resample"},{"id":"T-MOMENTUM-R1","book":"the 48-hour measurement, 12 Sep 2026","claim":"Half an hour after the scanner first sees a pool, price already up two-fold on the hour with an hour of volume twice the pool, quoted in ether, is a runner more often than not — and a median forty-six-fold was still ahead of that moment.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":0,"lift":null,"ciLow":null,"ciHigh":null,"n":null,"reason":"no out-of-sample night yet — the rule was registered tonight and earns nothing on its own data"},{"id":"T-MOMENTUM-R2","book":"the 48-hour measurement, 12 Sep 2026","claim":"The same moment asked in dollars: fifty thousand on the hour, two-fold on the hour, ten thousand in the pool. More recall than the first form for one more false positive per runner.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":1,"lift":19.15732546705998,"ciLow":null,"ciHigh":null,"n":113,"reason":"the interval could not be computed — too few pools to resample"},{"id":"T-MOMENTUM-R3","book":"the 48-hour measurement, 12 Sep 2026","claim":"Volume LEVEL does not lead a run; volume ACCELERATION does. An hour's volume at the second reading twice what it was at the first, with price a quarter up, is the earliest signal with a real lift, ten minutes in.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":1,"lift":10.972727272727274,"ciLow":null,"ciHigh":null,"n":396,"reason":"the interval could not be computed — too few pools to resample"},{"id":"T-SHILLER-NAME-RUNS","book":"Akerlof and Shiller, Animal Spirits — read the other way","claim":"A reused ticker both dies more often and runs more often. Eleven of thirteen maintained runners wore a name the scanner had seen before; the trader's gate refuses a reused name at the door and refused thirteen of fifteen.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":2,"lift":3.7219305653320744,"ciLow":2.5680305909397814,"ciHigh":3.770123816120156,"n":17038,"reason":"open, not found: 17038 selected rows against the 31226 a difference this size needs — small, not wrong"},{"id":"T-CATCHER-CHG24","book":"the house's own thesis, measured against the runners","claim":"The catcher's ceiling — past four-fold in a day it has run — refuses the runners by construction while a median forty-six-fold is still ahead. Lifting it raised recall of ten-folders from a quarter to eighty-five per cent and precision at the same time.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":1,"lift":6.666666666666667,"ciLow":null,"ciHigh":null,"n":31,"reason":"the interval could not be computed — too few pools to resample"},{"id":"T-CATCHER-ACCEL","book":"the house's own thesis, measured against the runners","claim":"The acceleration term is exactly six on every pool under six hours old, because the feed reports the six-hour volume as the hour's. It hands two points to everything young and separates nothing.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":1,"lift":6.799922640737233,"ciLow":null,"ciHigh":null,"n":9,"reason":"the interval could not be computed — too few pools to resample"},{"id":"T-STEVENSON-FILLS","book":"Stevenson, The Trading Game","claim":"Dollar volume made of fills under sixty dollars is dust, not a crowd; ninety-three per cent of pools whose early fills were that small were dead within the day.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":2,"lift":0.922902292124144,"ciLow":0.922902292124144,"ciHigh":0.922902292124144,"n":379,"reason":"open, not found: 379 selected rows against the 2964 a difference this size needs — small, not wrong"},{"id":"T-STEVENSON-RELAUNCH","book":"Stevenson, The Trading Game","claim":"The same hands launch the same name again inside a week, and a name relaunched by someone who has done it before runs more often than a name launched once. The count of runners is a count of families.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":2,"lift":3.8834449490833305,"ciLow":2.6764365183711245,"ciHigh":3.9381467543512243,"n":18337,"reason":"open, not found: 18337 selected rows against the 33181 a difference this size needs — small, not wrong"},{"id":"T-GATE-LIFT","book":"The scoreboard this box publishes at /record, 18 Sep 2026","claim":"A pool the scanner called doubles more often than a pool that traded and was never called. It is the only question that matters about a scanner and the one the free record leads with, so it has to survive nights it was not chosen on.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":0,"lift":null,"ciLow":null,"ciHigh":null,"n":null,"reason":"no out-of-sample night yet — the rule was registered tonight and earns nothing on its own data"},{"id":"T-SCORE-SEPARATES","book":"The scanner's own score, registered as a null on 18 Sep 2026","claim":"A call scoring ten or more doubles more often than one scoring seven to nine. Expected to be refuted: the measured bands ran 7:13% 8:12% 9:13% 10:7% 11:23% 12:18% 13:17%, which is not an order.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":0,"lift":null,"ciLow":null,"ciHigh":null,"n":null,"reason":"no out-of-sample night yet — the rule was registered tonight and earns nothing on its own data"},{"id":"T-SELLTEST","book":"honeycheck, the sell test this box runs as a separate service","claim":"A call opened on a token honeycheck had already marked TRAP or BLOCKED before the call was made dies or rugs more often than one on a token it had not. TAXED is banded apart: money back short is not money not back.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":0,"lift":null,"ciLow":null,"ciHigh":null,"n":null,"reason":"no out-of-sample night yet — the rule was registered tonight and earns nothing on its own data"},{"id":"T-CONCENTRATION","book":"The oldest suspicion on this chain, never measured here against a fixed horizon","claim":"When the ten largest addresses hold most of a token at the moment a call is opened, the call rugs more often. A high top-ten share is a fact; a low one is weak evidence, because splitting a holding across wallets costs nothing.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":0,"lift":null,"ciLow":null,"ciHigh":null,"n":null,"reason":"no out-of-sample night yet — the rule was registered tonight and earns nothing on its own data"},{"id":"T-FUNDING-REGIME","book":"Our own Hyperliquid sampling, kept since 17 Aug 2026","claim":"Calls opened while Bitcoin funding is negative on Hyperliquid double more often. Negative funding is a crowded short side, and the folk claim is that a squeeze on the majors drags risk appetite as far down the curve as this chain.","verdict":"open","outOfSampleNights":0,"lift":null,"ciLow":null,"ciHigh":null,"n":null,"reason":"no out-of-sample night yet — the rule was registered tonight and earns nothing on its own data"}],"note":"Nothing has cleared its bar yet. A thesis is confirmed only after it survives on nights it was not chosen on; until then it is open, whatever its lift looks like."}},"labsNote":"The same studies, scored separately on each chain, because a thesis that holds on one and fails on the other is a finding rather than something to average away. `lab` above is the first of them, kept so an older reader still gets a real answer.","caveats":["A call is graded on the pool's price, not on a fill. Nobody was buying.","Every rate is over graded calls, which is closed calls minus the ones the record set aside as unverified. Both numbers are above.","The Robinhood rate is an upper bound: 949 of its calls were opened before the record's credibility guards existed, and only those with an impossible maximum are set aside.","The two chains were not observed the same way. Arc is ours, read block by block off its own node. Every Robinhood price came from Dexscreener and GeckoTerminal, so its figures here are derived from a third party's observations and are published as our own record's performance rather than sold: the paid file withholds those columns.","The Arc record is days old and most of its calls are still open, so its rates move as they close.","The lift here and the lift our research engine reports are different measurements and will not match. This one is over every closed call against every pool in the store that traded and was never called. The engine's is over one night's population, which is the pools it holds a graded first sight for inside its own window. Both state their groups; neither is the other.","This is a record of what a scanner flagged and what happened next. It is not advice and nothing here is a recommendation."],"measured":"Opened at a price, tracked, and closed at a fixed horizon by the same code every time. Nothing is edited and nothing is removed; a call the record cannot vouch for keeps its row and is counted separately."}